Issue 01: AI & Metacognitive change

Here are 2 curves:

Growth in AI capabilities is beyond the control of most leaders. It is driven on a global scale and is fast accelerating. The only thing we can do is seek to learn & “understand” what is going on.

Growth in “capacity to leverage AI” is in our hands. It is driven, not by AI skills (which are easily learnt) but the deeper metacognitive skills needed to leverage AI (the way we think, the way our thought models are constructed, the way we translate information overload into meaningful action, etc.)

Now consider 3 scenarios:

Scenario 1:

If AI capabilities far exceed the metacognitive capacity of a group of people, they will not just underuse AI, they will also be swept away by change.

Scenario 2:

Organizations that build their metacognitive capacity will build “organization-wide intelligence”, i.e. a collective capacity to radically improve efficiencies, create innovative new products & models, and radically rethink business models.

Scenario 3:

The few, rare, high collective intelligence systems which have “generative metacognitive capacities” will lead how others think about the world. They are the radical disruptors.

The challenge before us:

1. How to avoid Scenario 1?
   Build core metacognitive capacities across the organization

2. How to sustainably operate in Scenario 2?
   Build at least a group of people who are constantly evolving in their “capacity to think” (i.e. evolutionary meta-cognitive capacities)

3. Can we work in Scenario 3?
   Extremely high metacognitive capacity means that as an organization or a leadership team you are fundamentally “inside-out”, i.e. you understand that your sensemaking can reshape the world you live in. As a result, you will be able to build radically new models in which AI will play a part. Ensure that at least the top leadership operates in Scenario 3.